If there is a sacred catechism in baseball, it's Game 7. Tonight someone, a superstar or a role player, will have their name firmly entrenched in baseball's postseason mythology. What are the things I'll be paying attention to tonight?* In what has become a one-game playoff, the team's 2% advantage of playing at home comes into play. Ryan Garko wrote in his blog that they didn't want to go back to Boston, and as we face baseball's equivalent to a football playoff game, we understand why.
* Matsuzaka, pictured above announcing what was, for the Red Sox, an eight figure deal, has looked tired in his last few starts. He wasn't prepared for his American workload, working every fourth or fifth day as opposed to every sixth. I can't recall who said it, but someone said that Dice-K's pitches haven't looked anywhere near as crisp in the second half of the season. For a guy that was supposed to carry Boston's pitching staff, Dice-K needs to step-up in a big way tonight. As I said earlier today neither team will be shy about yanking their starter early if they prove to not be effective.
Jake Westbrook, Matsuzaka's mound opponent, lost the Yankees in Game 3 of the ALDS and defeated the Sox in the third game of this ALCS. He's a groundball pitcher and has one the highest groundball ratios this side of Derek Lowe. If he can keep the ball down, and Sox hitters don't lay off of his pitches, I can't think of another starter that I want to go for the Indians. Especially considering the fatigue that both Carmona and Sabathia appear to be suffering from.
* Travis Hafner needs to hit. As the ALCS headed to Cleveland, it seemed like Travis Hafner remembered that he was Travis Hafner, but all of a sudden he's slipped into a terrible slump at the most inopportune time. Grady Sizemore is another guy that the Tribe needs to step-up, but Grady has posted a .321 OBP for the series, so at least he's been drawing some walks to go along with his putrid hitting. Asdrubal Cabrera has also posted a low OBP coming out of the number two hole for Cleveland.
* Jacoby Ellsbury is a smart option for his offense and he does play above-average defense but I wouldn't be surprised if Francona puts Crisp back in center as a late-inning defensive replacement. Watching Ellsbury's inexperienced trot around Fenway's centerfield last night only strengthened my opinion that Francona needs Coco there in late innings. Or he could put Ellsbury in left and put Coco in center as a late inning defensive replacement for Manny Ramirez.
Bottom Line: As I said earlier, the 2% advantage of playing at home has to give Boston the advantage going into this one. Other than that, it's like any other baseball game, it's a toss-up. The gap between Westbrook and Matsuzaka doesn't appear to be large enough to give any team an advantage, though that will depend on what Dice-K takes the mound. I said Boston in seven at the start of the series, so I guess I'll stick with that prediction. Let's just hope we get one of the few good games of this year's postseason.
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